The most eagerly anticipated "boxing" match of 2005, a potential fight of the year candidate, will unfold Saturday night at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas when Philippino firefly Manny "Pac-Man" Pacquiao tangles with Mexican superstar Erik "El Terrible" Morales.

I say "boxing" match because it is widley anticipated that there will be little actual boxing between the two brawlers. No, this one is expected to be a burn-burner, and as both fighters don't like to take backward steps, their trains are bound to collide. In this scenario, many fight fans give the advantage to Pacquiao. Here's why they're wrong.

The choice made by Erik Morales to take on Manny Pacquiao after his close decision loss to arch-nemesis Marco Antonio Barrera last November was based on more than just ego and Mexican male machismo. Sure, Morales feels he is vastly superior to Barrera, even though he's down 2-1 in their epic trilogy. And sure, Morales feels that he, not Barrera and not Juan Manuel Maruquez, is the best Mexican fighter around, and by beating Pacquiao he will indirectly prove his superiority over both of them. But the real reason Morales rushed to sign a fight with Pacquiao is because he knows he can beat him.

Morales, 47-2 (34), started his career at junior featherweight, 122 lbs. He has since moved up to featherweight and now junior lightweight and his only two professional losses are to Barrera. Morales has never been knocked down, has faced stiffer competition than Pacquiao, and although the jury is still out on whether he has carried his power up to 130, he stopped Guty Espadas in his junior lightweight debut and came close to stopping Barrera in their third fight. Morales is a better boxer than Pacquiao, who cannot fight going backwards. Though Pacquiao is faster and has energy to burn, Morales has sound defensive skills (when he's willing to employ them) and can box in a phone booth or at long range. And he can slug just as well, if not better, than the "Pac-Man".

Pacquiao, because of his side-to-side movement and devestating punching power is often called a "little Mike Tyson", but Morales has an iron jaw and power of his own. This will be Pacquiao's first fight at 130, and, having started his pro career at flyweight (108 lbs.), it is almost a certainty that he will be at a size disadvantage. It doesn't appear that the one inch height advantage Morales has will be a factor, as Marquez is also 5' 7" and was knocked down three times in the first round by Pacquiao, but we don't know how strong Pacquiao will be at 130, either.

This will be a difficult fight for Morales whether he boxes or gives in to his primal urge to brawl. His beautiful combination punching should give Pacquaio trouble, as did that of Marquez's last May. Because of his power and hand speed, Pacquiao, 39-2-2- (30), has the ability to hurt Morales. But because of his porous defence, Morales will have the opportunity to drop the so-so chinned Pacquiao.

And he will. This one is not going the distance.

Prediction: Morales KO 3