Dominick Guinn's "Southern Disaster" needs to be as devastating as Hurricane Katrina was to New Orleans; that is, he has to destroy James Toney-and look good doing it - if he ever wants to retain that glimmer of hope he once had of fighting for the heavyweight championship.

Guinn, 25-2-1 (18), and Toney, 68-4-2 (43), will face each other Saturday night in Reno, Nevada in what is a do-or-die situation for both fighters - especially Guinn. In his last four fights, Guinn's record is a dismal 1-2-1, and his lethargic efforts caused a shakeup in his camp; Joe Goosen replaces Ronnie Shields as Guinn's trainer. Goosen, who has shown an ability to light fires under his fighters, should be a good match for Guinn, who, although a hard-punching boxer-puncher with quick hands and fast feet, has a strong tendency to fall asleep inside the ring - something that caused Sheilds fits. If the native of Arkansas is ever going to recapture the burning intensity he showed in his spectacular stoppage of Michael Grant, he can't afford to be cool as ice.

Toney is looking for redemption-although he might not admit it - after being stripped of the WBA title he won by laying a one-sided beating on John Ruiz, after steroids were found in his system. Toney, an old-school fighter from Michigan with superb defensive skills, wasted away his prime years, but has enjoyed a recent revival as of late with huge victories over Vasilly Jirov and Evander Holyfield. The Ruiz victory lost some of its lustre with the steroids revelation, but it was solid, vintage Toney just the same. His suspension served, Toney will be looking to make a statement against Guinn, whom he calls a desperate man.

Toney's training allergies are no secret, hence his campaigning at heavyweight (the only division where you don't have to make weight), but the bloated, bowling-ball sized pugilist knows every trick in the book, packs a decent punch and throws often and accurately. It would be a good strategy for Guinn to try and tire Toney, although it doesn't seem likely, because to do that one needs to let his hands go, and Guinn is no volume puncher.

This is an intriguing fight, with a lot on the line and the potential for some sporadic fireworks. Although most fight fans will be watching HBO's telecast of Jones-Tarver III, Toney advises, smugly, "My fight won't last long. You can get the Jones show afterward."

As much as I want to believe that Guinn has undergone a makeover and Goosen has instilled in him the sense of urgency he so desperately needs, I can't pick Guinn to win this fight. Not against Toney. "Light's Out" is too experienced and too good - even if he does look like the Michelin Man at times. Guinn has to forget about trying to land a lucky punch and think about outboxing Toney for 12 rounds - something I'm not sure he can do.

Prediction: Toney by split decision