"Not only do I have to win, I am going to win."

Those were the defiant words of Mexican warrior Erik "El Terrible" Morales, discussing the siginficance of his rubber match with Manny Pacquiao Saturday night at Las Vegas' Thomas & Mack Center.

After beating Pacquiao decisively in their first bout, Morales was outgunned by the hard-hitting Filipino in their January 2006 rematch, running out of steam and getting stopped for the first time in his career. The normally gaunt Morales - usually seen at weigh-ins with sunken cheeks and eating ice chips - has worked with Velocity Sports Performance to help him bring his weight down safely and efficiently for this fight, and it seems to have paid off. Morales was in good spirits while addressing reporters, and has even reunited with father Jose since the Zahir Raheem loss.

Many insiders wonder whether Morales, 48-4 (34), isn't a shot fighter; he looked slow and lethargic against Raheem and was simply destroyed by "Pac-Man". But Morales die-hards will tell you that The Tijuana native was fighting at too high a weight class - 135 lbs - for the Raheem fight, and that he was wining both fights with Pacquiao after six rounds. Like his nemesis Marco Antonio Barerra, Morales has shown an ability to bounce back from poor performances and retain his old form. But Barrera's poor performances were devestating - Morales has never suffered a loss like the one Pacquiao handed him seven months ago. That Morales will perform better than he did then is a given. Whether he has the stamina to deliver another blood-and-guts, barn-burning streetfight remains to be seen.

Pacquiao, 43-3-2 (32), on the other hand, has been coasting along, stringing up victory after victory while his larger-than-life status in the Phillipines grows to gargantuan proportions. Unlike Morales, Pacquiao has kept busy, his last fight being a hard-fought and well-deserved win over Oscar Larios, who rocked Pacquiao early in the fight only to be taken apart during the later rounds. Much has been made of Pacquiao's distractions - which are many - ranging from his recent seven-fight deal with Oscar De La Hoya's Golden Boy Promotions, to admirers and hangers-on who threaten to disrupt his training. Nevertheless, Pacquiao says he is focused and ready.

Another dynamic which adds intrigue to the fight is the gloves issue. This time Morales, who normally eschews Cleto Reyes gloves due to his brittle hands and goes with Winning, is opting for Reyes, known as the puncher's gloves. Pacquiao credited the Reyes gloves with assisting his stoppage of Morales in their second fight. Morales hasn't stopped a fighter since his one-punch knockout of Guty Espadas in 2002, and Pacquiao has showed a better ability to carry his power up in weight than has Morales.

In scintilating trilogies, of which Morales is already a part of with Barerra, the first and third fight are often the best. Morales has the technique and boxing skills to beat Pacquiao, but his ego, arrogance, and penchant for brawling did not serve him well in their sequel. If Morales wants to win, he must swallow his Mexican pride and combine toe-to-toe action with measured, technical boxing. Pacquiao has to do what he always does: move forward and throw punches in bunches, hoping to tire out his opponent. Morales-Pacquiao II was conspicuous for their brutal exchanges: whenever Morales threw a combination, Pacquiao would answer with a six or seven punch onslaught, and Morales looked unable to take the heat. Morales will have to use his jab and counterpunch as he did in their first encounter.

This fight can go any of three ways. The first scenario is that Morales comes out sharp and seemingly hits harder with the Reyes gloves. A slow-starting Pacquiao is caught by surprise and dropped. He rises only to have "El Terrible" do what Larios was unable to do - finish him off. The second scenario is Morales' stamina is much improved and he and Pacquiao go toe-to-toe in a war resembling the first two fights, except this time Morales paces himself and comes out with a decision victory.

The last scenario is Pacquiao hurting Morales early and applying constant pressure while Morales tries to engage instead of boxing. It appears the psyche of the great Mexican warrior is forever crushed, and in the later rounds Pacquiao puts Morales away for good.

But something tells me that the Mexican warrior is not done just yet.

Prediction: Morales W 12