Things didn’t look good for Juan Manuel Marquez in the opening seconds of his fight with Manny Pacquiao on May 8th, 2004. Within mere moments, the Filipino whirlwind had the proud Mexican down three times, his face a bloody mess. That Marquez was able not only to survive the round, but keep his composure and outbox his rival for the next eleven to earn a controversial draw, has to be considered one of the greatest comebacks in boxing history.

What should have been the launching pad to catapult him toward the glory shared by fellow Mexican superstars Marco Antonio Barrera and Erik Morales, poor management decisions and bouts versus non-marquee opponents left a Marquez who was in his prime out of the spotlight—and the big money fights. Now—thanks to fragile truce between promoters Golden Boy and Top Rank, who handle Marquez and Pacquiao, respectively—the two fighters are reunited Saturday night at the Mandalay Bay in Las Vegas, to rekindle the fires of four years ago. For Pacquiao, 45-3-2 (35), beating Marquez eliminates all the ambiguity of their draw and leaves no doubt as to who the The Ring champion at 135 is. For Marquez, 48-3-1 (35), beating Pacquiao is about Mexican pride and proving to himself that he belongs right up there with his Hall-of-Fame peers. Pacquiao lost the first fight of his trilogy with Morales, but is 4-1 against Barrera and Morales, who are both recently retired. Marquez represents Mexico’s last line of defense.

Since the 2004 draw both fighters’ lives have drawn separate paths. Pacquiao achieved superstar celebrity status in the Philippines with each win, including two sensational stoppages of Morales, a 6th round stoppage over Mexican Hector Velazquez, a decision win in Manila against tough Mexican Oscar Larios, and a rematch points victory over Barrera. It’s no wonder that the affable Pac-Man has been ominously dubbed the “Mexican Killer.” Marquez’s road to Saturday night has not been as rewarding. After tedious decision wins over Orlando Salido and Victor Polo that only boxing purists could appreciate, Marquez turned down over $1 million to fight a rematch with Pacquiao in order to fight Chris John in Indonesia for a fraction of that—a fight he lost. After a spectacular one-punch knockout of Jimrex Jaca in 2006, a bout in which Marquez abandoned his safety-first approach for aggression, high profile victories against Marco Antonio Barrera and Rocky Juarez put Marquez right back in the mix and set off talks for a rematch with Pacquiao.

Now 34, Marquez is past his prime, but Pacquiao has decelerated slightly, and at 29, is no spring chicken either, especially considering the way Pacquiao fights. Although Pacquiao is a smarter fighter now, the right hand giving him a two-fisted arsenal, Marquez was able to outbox him in his prime: and after being floored three times in one round. Going into training camp conscious of that fact must have given Marquez a slight psychological boost. Then again, knowing that he could drop his opponent with just one clean shot to the jaw gives the Pacquiao camp plenty of inspiration.

In order for Marquez to win, he will have to fight a smart fight; that is, box effectively to avoid getting nailed by the straight left, and fight in spurts to discourage Pacquiao and show the judges and the fans that he, too, is a fighter. Judging by Pacquiao’s last performance against Barrera, in which Pac-Man easily beat but did not dismantle his opponent, Marquez should find Pacquiao a little easier to handle. Of course, it’s all relative, and just because Marquez came very close to stopping Barrera, and Barrera survived against Pacquiao, does not mean that a Marquez victory over Pacquiao is a given (especially since Marquez was dropped by Barrera). But unless Marquez ages overnight—which is not at all impossible in this sport—he should be able to hold off the Filipino pitbull and pull off a decision victory. The rematch will not equal the first in terms of excitement, drama, and brutal exchanges, but it will be entertaining, tactical, and hard fought.

And in the end, Marquez will have his hand raised in victory. A victory for himself, and for all of Mexico.

Prediction: Marquez by split decision.